Playoff Preview: #3 Dallas vs. #4 Oklahoma City/#8 Memphis
Posted by Neil Paine on May 14, 2011
Dallas Mavericks
57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)
PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)
Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)
Playoffs:
Won NBA Western Conference Semifinals (4-0) versus Los Angeles Lakers
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus Portland Trail Blazers
| Pos | Roster | G | MP | poMPG | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jason Kidd | 90 | 2989 | 33.6 | 3.99 | 0.0 | 1.9 | 14.7 | 0.119 |
| SG | Jason Terry | 92 | 2887 | 32.3 | 1.43 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 16.8 | 0.116 |
| SF | Shawn Marion | 90 | 2562 | 30.9 | -0.21 | -2.3 | 0.8 | 16.6 | 0.116 |
| PF | Dirk Nowitzki | 83 | 2885 | 38.1 | 5.08 | 7.0 | 7.8 | 23.8 | 0.217 |
| C | Tyson Chandler | 84 | 2356 | 29.7 | 2.66 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 17.9 | 0.215 |
| SF | Peja Stojakovic | 43 | 860 | 24.3 | 0.74 | 2.0 | 3.5 | 15.4 | 0.136 |
| PG | Jose Barea | 91 | 1847 | 17.8 | -1.81 | 0.4 | -1.7 | 14.8 | 0.093 |
| C | Brendan Haywood | 82 | 1506 | 17.5 | -3.34 | -1.2 | 1.4 | 11.4 | 0.101 |
| SG | D. Stevenson | 82 | 1286 | 12.8 | -3.21 | -0.9 | 0.4 | 9.3 | 0.069 |
| SG | Corey Brewer | 74 | 1528 | 3.6 | -0.58 | 0.0 | -0.3 | 11.1 | 0.037 |
| PF | Brian Cardinal | 60 | 625 | 1.8 | 0.57 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 9.9 | 0.136 |
| C | Ian Mahinmi | 58 | 493 | 2.5 | 0.28 | 0.7 | 0.0 | 13.7 | 0.177 |
Oklahoma City Thunder
55-27, 1st in NBA Northwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Scott Brooks (55-27)
PTS/G: 104.8 (5th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 101.0 (18th of 30)
SRS: 3.81 (9th of 30) ▪ Pace: 92.7 (13th of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.2 (5th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.2 (15th of 30)
Expected W-L: 51-31 (9th of 30)
Arena: Oklahoma City Arena ▪ Attendance: 726,071 (14th of 30)
Playoffs:
Tied NBA Western Conference Semifinals (3-3) versus Memphis Grizzlies
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-1) versus Denver Nuggets
| Pos | Roster | G | MP | poMPG | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Russell Westbrook | 93 | 3255 | 37.1 | 4.24 | 0.7 | 4.1 | 23.2 | 0.153 |
| SG | James Harden | 93 | 2533 | 31.3 | 2.63 | 1.0 | 4.0 | 16.5 | 0.160 |
| SF | Kevin Durant | 89 | 3498 | 41.8 | 5.15 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 23.6 | 0.195 |
| C | Serge Ibaka | 93 | 2548 | 30.2 | -0.23 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 17.5 | 0.161 |
| C | Kendrick Perkins | 40 | 1054 | 28.4 | -3.87 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 8.4 | 0.052 |
| PF | Nick Collison | 82 | 1768 | 22.2 | -1.29 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 11.1 | 0.118 |
| SG | Thabo Sefolosha | 90 | 2277 | 20.7 | -0.27 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 10.3 | 0.093 |
| PG | Eric Maynor | 93 | 1340 | 12.7 | -2.98 | 1.9 | 2.8 | 12.2 | 0.066 |
| SG | Daequan Cook | 54 | 735 | 12.5 | -0.42 | 1.2 | -0.4 | 12.3 | 0.118 |
| C | Nazr Mohammed | 86 | 1406 | 11.5 | -1.70 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 14.9 | 0.092 |
| PG | Royal Ivey | 26 | 159 | 4.0 | -3.25 | -1.0 | -3.8 | 9.2 | 0.077 |
| PG | Nate Robinson | 60 | 1017 | 4.0 | -1.98 | -1.2 | -0.3 | 10.0 | 0.051 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | DAL | OKC | Prob | Games | DAL | OKC | Prob | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.5% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.3% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 18.9% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17.7% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 15.3% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 16.4% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 15.1% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 14.5% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 11.1% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 11.6% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 7.9% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 8.1% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 7.3% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 7.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 4.0% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 4.5% | |
| DAL | 62.4% | DAL | 59.5% | |||||
| OKC | 37.6% | OKC | 40.5% | |||||
Memphis Grizzlies
46-36, 4th in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Lionel Hollins (46-36)
PTS/G: 99.9 (12th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 97.6 (13th of 30)
SRS: 2.55 (10th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.9 (15th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.6 (16th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.1 (9th of 30)
Expected W-L: 48-34 (10th of 30)
Arena: FedExForum ▪ Attendance: 600,507 (27th of 30)
Playoffs:
Tied NBA Western Conference Semifinals (3-3) versus Oklahoma City Thunder
Won NBA Western Conference First Round (4-2) versus San Antonio Spurs
| Pos | Roster | G | MP | poMPG | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | PER | WS/48 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Mike Conley | 93 | 3339 | 38.9 | 2.12 | 3.5 | 3.1 | 15.6 | 0.105 |
| SG | O.J. Mayo | 83 | 2199 | 27.5 | -1.24 | 1.4 | -0.5 | 12.6 | 0.064 |
| SG | Tony Allen | 84 | 1817 | 26.9 | 3.25 | 0.8 | 2.0 | 16.9 | 0.130 |
| PF | Zach Randolph | 87 | 3201 | 39.8 | 3.23 | 2.5 | 2.4 | 22.5 | 0.184 |
| C | Marc Gasol | 93 | 3068 | 40.2 | 1.66 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 17.2 | 0.149 |
| SF | Shane Battier | 94 | 2686 | 25.9 | -0.22 | 1.7 | 3.6 | 12.1 | 0.102 |
| SG | Sam Young | 90 | 1825 | 20.7 | -2.42 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 12.3 | 0.081 |
| PF | Darrell Arthur | 92 | 1793 | 15.3 | -0.89 | -0.1 | -1.0 | 15.7 | 0.109 |
| SG | Greivis Vasquez | 82 | 994 | 11.2 | -3.69 | -1.9 | -1.4 | 10.7 | 0.049 |
| C | Hamed Haddadi | 39 | 196 | 3.5 | -1.74 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 18.0 | 0.139 |
| PF | Leon Powe | 33 | 340 | 4.0 | -2.69 | -1.4 | 1.1 | 14.9 | 0.088 |
| PG | Ishmael Smith | 47 | 452 | 2.5 | -5.51 | -1.5 | -1.3 | 8.0 | -0.011 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | DAL | MEM | Prob | Games | DAL | MEM | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 22.9% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 25.6% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.4% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19.7% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 16.9% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.8% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 12.0% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13.0% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 10.7% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 10.0% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 9.2% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7.9% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 5.2% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4.1% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 2.7% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 2.0% | |
| DAL | 70.8% | DAL | 76.0% | |||||
| MEM | 29.2% | MEM | 24.0% | |||||
(Player stats are combined regular-season + playoffs. 2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann.)