Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #3 Dallas
Posted by Neil Paine on April 29, 2011
Los Angeles Lakers
57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)
PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)
Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Derek Fisher | 82 | 2297 | -0.95 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.078 | 8.9 |
| SG | Kobe Bryant | 82 | 2779 | 5.67 | 1.3 | 4.8 | 0.179 | 23.9 |
| SF | Ron Artest | 82 | 2410 | 0.13 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 0.087 | 11.2 |
| PF | Pau Gasol | 82 | 3037 | 3.88 | 3.7 | 4.4 | 0.232 | 23.3 |
| C | Andrew Bynum | 54 | 1500 | 2.32 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 0.210 | 21.1 |
| PF | Lamar Odom | 82 | 2639 | 3.19 | 2.2 | 4.9 | 0.184 | 19.4 |
| PG | Steve Blake | 79 | 1581 | -3.30 | 0.0 | 1.2 | 0.055 | 7.5 |
| SG | Shannon Brown | 82 | 1568 | -0.60 | -0.3 | -3.1 | 0.093 | 13.6 |
| SF/SG | Matt Barnes | 53 | 1020 | 1.64 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.142 | 14.6 |
| SF | Luke Walton | 54 | 484 | -7.62 | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.016 | 5.1 |
| PF | Derrick Caracter | 41 | 215 | -5.16 | -1.7 | -1.7 | 0.057 | 10.0 |
| SF | Devin Ebanks | 20 | 118 | -2.92 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 0.144 | 19.4 |
| G | Trey Johnson | 8 | 94 | -7.95 | -0.4 | -0.6 | -0.008 | 8.3 |
| C | Joe Smith | 16 | 69 | -10.54 | -0.3 | -0.9 | -0.099 | -0.1 |
Dallas Mavericks
57-25, 2nd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Rick Carlisle (57-25)
PTS/G: 100.2 (11th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 96.0 (10th of 30)
SRS: 4.41 (8th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.3 (18th of 30)
Off Rtg: 109.7 (8th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.0 (8th of 30)
Expected W-L: 53-29 (8th of 30)
Arena: American Airlines Center ▪ Attendance: 803,968 (6th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jason Kidd | 80 | 2653 | 3.78 | -0.1 | 1.9 | 0.116 | 14.4 |
| SG | DeShawn Stevenson | 72 | 1158 | -3.11 | -0.3 | 0.4 | 0.074 | 9.8 |
| SF | Shawn Marion | 80 | 2253 | 0.03 | -2.1 | 0.8 | 0.120 | 17.0 |
| PF | Dirk Nowitzki | 73 | 2504 | 4.89 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 0.213 | 23.4 |
| C | Tyson Chandler | 74 | 2059 | 2.99 | 3.5 | 2.6 | 0.218 | 18.4 |
| SG | Jason Terry | 82 | 2564 | 0.81 | 2.5 | 1.9 | 0.100 | 15.9 |
| PG | Jose Barea | 81 | 1669 | -1.65 | 0.5 | -1.7 | 0.093 | 14.8 |
| C | Brendan Haywood | 72 | 1331 | -3.21 | -1.4 | 1.4 | 0.104 | 11.7 |
| SF | Peja Stojakovic | 33 | 617 | -0.03 | 1.6 | 3.5 | 0.126 | 15.2 |
| SG | Rodrigue Beaubois | 28 | 496 | -0.83 | -1.3 | -1.6 | 0.022 | 11.4 |
| SG | Corey Brewer | 69 | 1510 | -0.75 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.036 | 11.0 |
| PF | Brian Cardinal | 56 | 618 | 0.44 | -0.8 | 1.1 | 0.132 | 9.7 |
| C | Ian Mahinmi | 56 | 488 | 0.30 | 0.8 | 0.0 | 0.177 | 13.7 |
| SF | Caron Butler | 29 | 867 | -0.89 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.067 | 14.2 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | LAL | DAL | Prob | Games | LAL | DAL | Prob | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 20.5% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 19.7% | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 20.0% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18.4% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 15.7% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 15.4% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 14.4% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 13.1% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 10.6% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 12.5% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 8.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 9.6% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 6.7% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 5.7% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 3.6% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 5.6% | |
| LAL | 64.8% | LAL | 53.9% | |||||
| DAL | 35.2% | DAL | 46.1% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 29th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
They have the same overall record, so I'll predict a tie. Dirk should win the series on game 7 triple overtime penalty free throws. He'll make 5 of 5, while Bryant will go 4 of 5.
Sorry. I'm trying to get prepped to watch this so called "hockey", if it can so be called, while the NBA is locked out next year.
April 30th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
too bad caron butler got hurt...i think dallas would definitely have a good chance to beat LA with him. they still have a chance, now that dan crawford has been called out lol
May 1st, 2011 at 7:52 am
Dallas should start Stojakovic to be able to put Marion on Bryant. LA should start Odom and put either him or Artest on Nowitzki
May 2nd, 2011 at 12:55 pm
It depends on who's doin' the reffing.
May 2nd, 2011 at 10:28 pm
This should be an exciting series, I say Lakers in 7. The fact that Kobe hasn't played Dirk in the playoffs should not be all that surprising.
http://theresastatforthat.blogspot.com/2011/05/lakers-mavericks-why-havent-they-played.html
May 5th, 2011 at 9:24 am
Mavs in 6 after the 2-0 lead
May 15th, 2011 at 9:00 am
Hey Deron... "The fact that Kobe hasn't played Dirk in the playoffs should not be all that surprising."
Why is this not all that surprising? They've both been in the league for a while... both have been on the same team... both in the Western Conference... and both are in the playoffs consistently.