Playoff Preview: #4 Orlando vs. #5 Atlanta
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Orlando Magic
52-30, 2nd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Stan Van Gundy (52-30)
PTS/G: 99.2 (16th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 93.7 (4th of 30)
SRS: 4.92 (5th of 30) ▪ Pace: 91.4 (17th of 30)
Off Rtg: 107.7 (14th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 101.8 (3rd of 30)
Expected W-L: 56-26 (5th of 30)
Arena: Amway Center ▪ Attendance: 777,852 (9th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Jameer Nelson | 76 | 2319 | 2.20 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 0.137 | 15.4 |
| SG | Jason Richardson | 80 | 2715 | 2.29 | 1.1 | -0.3 | 0.123 | 14.9 |
| SF | Hedo Turkoglu | 81 | 2540 | 2.09 | 2.1 | 2.7 | 0.130 | 13.4 |
| PF | Brandon Bass | 76 | 1980 | -1.22 | 0.9 | 0.0 | 0.154 | 15.9 |
| C | Dwight Howard | 78 | 2935 | 7.24 | 4.3 | 7.6 | 0.236 | 26.0 |
| PG | Gilbert Arenas | 70 | 1796 | -1.06 | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.015 | 10.8 |
| SG | J.J. Redick | 59 | 1513 | -0.62 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.143 | 12.8 |
| PF | Ryan Anderson | 64 | 1424 | 4.27 | 2.4 | 3.4 | 0.218 | 19.1 |
| SF | Quentin Richardson | 57 | 955 | -2.96 | -1.0 | 0.8 | 0.068 | 8.0 |
| F-C | Earl Clark | 42 | 464 | -6.74 | -1.8 | -1.9 | 0.031 | 10.1 |
| PG | Chris Duhon | 51 | 774 | -6.77 | -0.8 | -0.4 | 0.015 | 5.6 |
| PF | Malik Allen | 18 | 178 | -6.93 | -1.4 | -2.8 | 0.047 | 3.3 |
Atlanta Hawks
44-38, 3rd in NBA Southeast Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Larry Drew (44-38)
PTS/G: 95.0 (26th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.8 (9th of 30)
SRS: -1.10 (18th of 30) ▪ Pace: 89.3 (27th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.1 (20th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 107.0 (13th of 30)
Expected W-L: 39-43 (17th of 30)
Arena: Philips Arena ▪ Attendance: 641,596 (22nd of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Kirk Hinrich | 72 | 2157 | -0.49 | -3.8 | -0.8 | 0.068 | 12.3 |
| SG | Joe Johnson | 72 | 2554 | 0.18 | 1.6 | 3.2 | 0.080 | 16.4 |
| F | Josh Smith | 77 | 2645 | 3.51 | 2.0 | 4.3 | 0.116 | 19.2 |
| C-F | Al Horford | 77 | 2704 | 3.61 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 0.179 | 20.7 |
| C | Jason Collins | 49 | 593 | -4.92 | 2.2 | -1.5 | 0.049 | 5.3 |
| SG | Jamal Crawford | 76 | 2297 | -1.25 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.071 | 14.2 |
| SF | Marvin Williams | 65 | 1865 | -1.49 | -0.2 | -0.4 | 0.102 | 13.5 |
| C | Zaza Pachulia | 79 | 1244 | -1.19 | -1.7 | 0.1 | 0.118 | 12.4 |
| PG | Jeff Teague | 70 | 963 | -0.65 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.083 | 14.6 |
| PF | Josh Powell | 54 | 653 | -8.20 | -1.9 | -5.1 | -0.012 | 8.0 |
| SF | Damien Wilkins | 52 | 676 | -1.50 | -1.8 | -3.7 | 0.104 | 11.4 |
| C | Hilton Armstrong | 53 | 488 | -2.79 | -0.8 | -2.2 | 0.045 | 8.8 |
| C | Etan Thomas | 13 | 82 | -2.77 | -0.4 | -3.0 | 0.130 | 15.1 |
| SF | Pape Sy | 3 | 21 | -8.82 | -0.1 | -0.1 | -0.047 | 9.2 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | ORL | ATL | Prob | Games | ORL | ATL | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 33.0% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 36.1% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 22.7% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 32.0% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.4% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 16.4% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 15.0% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 10.4% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 4.6% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.2% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 4.0% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2.0% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 1.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.7% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.7% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.3% | |
| ORL | 89.1% | ORL | 94.8% | |||||
| ATL | 10.9% | ATL | 5.2% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)