Posted by Neil Paine on February 25, 2011
Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | Comments Off on BBR Rankings: Schedule-Adjusted Offensive and Defensive Ratings (February 25, 2011)
Posted by Justin Kubatko on February 25, 2011
It is rare for a player who just played in the All-Star Game to be dealt to another team before the end of the season, but this week it happened twice. For this week's column I took a look at some of the more recent deals involving these players:
Keeping Score: Big Trades Don’t Come With Guarantees
This column appears in today's print edition as well.
Posted in NY Times | 8 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 24, 2011
I've been thinking about this concept for a while, but I want to throw it out there for the readers and see what they think...
Everyone knows we already have a Basketball Hall of Fame. But from an NBA perspective, a lot of people think it's broken -- as the argument goes, too many non-NBA people get inducted while great NBA players are left out in the cold. So there's a growing push to create an NBA-only Hall of Fame. How do you stock such a Hall, though? It seems like the other major sports have a pretty clear focus in their induction processes: baseball's hall is largely about longevity and statistical milestones, while football's hall is heavily focused on guys who won championships and/or changed the game.
So what should the NBA's angle be? I want to propose that this hypothetical Hall be about "relevance". As in, who were the relevant players in a given season or span of seasons? Who were the essential names? When you tell the Story Of The NBA, which players would it be inexcusable not to mention? If the Hall of Fame is about celebrating the history of the league, then including the guys that fundamentally shaped the narrative is a pretty good mandate. And if we can tell the NBA's story without mentioning a certain player, it's hard to argue that he belongs in the Hall.
The good news is that you can generate the majority of this list by setting up a basic checklist of requirements. But I want to know what you think those requirements are.
Off the top of my head, here's a basic list of requirements that capture the "relevant" players each season:
- Top 3 in each season's MVP voting
- Every Sporting News MVP
- Every season's 1st-team All-NBAers
- Every Finals MVP
- Top 3 players on each NBA champion
- Best player on Finals runner-up
- Best player on team with NBA's best record
- PER leader for seasons 2000-present
- Win Shares leader for seasons 2004-present
This is the list of players generated by those criteria:
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Posted in Hall of Fame, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Rants & Ramblings, Win Shares | 53 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 23, 2011
With noted shot-creator Carmelo Anthony on the move, I was wondering which players have a hand in "creating" the highest percentage of their team's shot attempts when on the floor.
If we're just looking at a player's own shooting attempts, this is pretty easy. You can look at the percentage of team FGA a player takes when on the court (all leaders minimum 1,366 minutes):
You could also take it a step further and factor in free throws as well, calculating the percentage of each team's True Shooting Attempts (FGA + .44 * FTA) each player takes while on the floor:
But I think you need to take assists into account as well.
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Posted in Analysis, Statgeekery | 30 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 22, 2011
Well, it's (quasi) official now: Carmelo Anthony is a member of the New York Knicks.
Finally, we can put aside the trade speculation and ask the really important questions about the deal. No, I'm not talking about how this shifts the balance of power in the East, or if 'Melo and Amare Stoudemire can coexist in the Big Apple... I'm talking about where Carmelo ranks among all-time players who were traded in the middle of the season.
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Posted in Data Dump, History, Statgeekery, Trivia, Win Shares | 37 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 21, 2011
Everyone who has spent time studying historical player stats knows this phenomenon: You've seen a player's name for years, but you only know him as a series of numbers on a page. He retired before you were born, and you haven't even seen so much as a trading card with his picture on it... yet, instinctively wanting to humanize him, you imagine what he was like. You know his height, weight, all of the vital stats, everything except his ethnicity. So you make an educated guess based on his name. You now have an idealized picture in your mind's eye of the player in his prime, a man to go alongside the numbers.
The only problem comes when you do see him for the first time -- and he looks quite a bit different from the imaginary version you created years ago.
This is the concept behind Bill Simmons' Reggie Cleveland All-Stars, a "list of sports figures whose names would seem to indicate that they are of a different race or ethnicity than they actually are". Its namesake? Cleveland, a 1970s-era pitcher whom Simmons just assumed was black until learning otherwise when he joined the Red Sox.
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Posted in Insane ideas | 29 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 19, 2011
Reading yesterday about Dave Duerson's tragic passing made me think about the player similarity system he inspired at PFR, and that in turn caused me to remember a similar system I concocted for basketball players.
Using the methodology I outlined, who are the most comparable players to this year's All-Stars in terms of career quality and shape (through their current age)?
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Posted in All-Star Game, History, Insane ideas, Just For Fun, Statgeekery, Totally Useless, Win Shares | 10 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 18, 2011
Posted in BBR Rankings, SRS, Statgeekery | 12 Comments »
Posted by Justin Kubatko on February 17, 2011
The title says it all:
Keeping Score: Sizing Up the All-Stars
Look for it in tomorrow's print edition as well.
Posted in NY Times | 3 Comments »
Posted by Neil Paine on February 17, 2011
The chart on this post about non-passing guards was so popular, I decided to run it for players at all positions (minimum 30 MPG):
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Posted in Data Dump, Statgeekery | 25 Comments »