Who Are the Most Similar Players to This Year’s All-Stars?
Posted by Neil Paine on February 19, 2011
Reading yesterday about Dave Duerson's tragic passing made me think about the player similarity system he inspired at PFR, and that in turn caused me to remember a similar system I concocted for basketball players.
Using the methodology I outlined, who are the most comparable players to this year's All-Stars in terms of career quality and shape (through their current age)?
East
West
February 19th, 2011 at 9:02 am
Neil, maybe you shouldn't file this under 'Totally Useless', as it could evolve into something useful.
Maybe even something like - http://sonicscentral.com/apbrmetrics/viewtopic.php?t=2721
Good luck!
February 19th, 2011 at 11:37 am
Love the Dirk Nowitzki/Charles Barkley comp!!!
February 19th, 2011 at 11:57 am
Can someone explain to me how this comparisons work?
February 19th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
#1 - Right, I suppose it's not "totally useless"... but it's also isn't really finding similar players in the traditional Bill James sense, and I wanted to convey that it's probably less useful than a system which does that.
#3 - First, I took every player-season in NBA/ABA history and pro-rated their OWS/DWS to 82 team games. Then, for a given pair of players at the same position, I calculated the squared difference between their prorated OWS & DWS at each age, and summed those differences across their entire career. The historical player with the smallest squared differences is the one who had the most similar career arc in terms of shape and quality.
Here's Michael Jordan, for instance:
Then you try to match up the SGs with the most similar career paths (in order from most to least similar):
Clyde Drexler
Ray Allen
Reggie Miller
George Gervin
Kobe Bryant
Eddie Jones
Joe Dumars
Hal Greer
Sidney Moncrief
Jeff Hornacek
Vince Carter
Jason Terry
Dwyane Wade
Hersey Hawkins
Walter Davis
It's not trying to find players who were necessarily stylistically similar to MJ (other than being SGs & having a similar OWS/DWS split); instead it just wants to find players who were roughly as good at him at the same ages. And obviously in the case of someone like Jordan, even the best comparison is going to be weak, because he was such a major outlier as a player.
February 19th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
I think that's why systems such as Basketball Prospectus's SHOENE were developed.
February 19th, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Interesting and hilarious! Gotta love Amare's comps! Good laugh...
February 20th, 2011 at 12:25 am
Off topic but my opinion on the current ELO rankings:
[ELO Most Overrated]
Tim Duncan
Steve Nash
Dennis Rodman
Bernard King
Bill Walton
Sam Bowie (WTF?)
[ELO Most Underrated]
Bill russell
Julius Erving
George Mikan (Below Domonique?)
February 20th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
How similar is LeBron to the closest match? I wouldn't think it would be close at all, much like Jordan.
February 20th, 2011 at 7:06 pm
More valid comparisons (based on style)
Amare Stoudamire -- Shawn Kemp, Spencer Haywood
Kevin Love -- Wes Unseld, Jerry Lucas, Dolph Schayes (?)
Kevin Durant -- George Gervin
Tim Duncan -- Elvin Hayes
Kobe Bryant -- Michael Jordan (do we have to wait for Kobe to hit 30,000 points before we can make this comparison)
February 20th, 2011 at 9:45 pm
Carmelo's comparisons are not that impressive. Do you all think his low win share numbers over his career are accurate or misleading? i don't watch the nuggets that often personally to know. If they're accurate, i'd stay away from him I were the Knicks or Nets, especially the Nets. they're giving up just about everything but Brook Lopez in their offer.