Playoff Preview: #2 LA Lakers vs. #7 New Orleans
Posted by Neil Paine on April 15, 2011
Los Angeles Lakers
57-25, 1st in NBA Pacific Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Phil Jackson (57-25)
PTS/G: 101.5 (9th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 95.4 (8th of 30)
SRS: 6.01 (3rd of 30) ▪ Pace: 90.7 (21st of 30)
Off Rtg: 111.0 (6th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 104.3 (6th of 30)
Expected W-L: 58-24 (3rd of 30)
Arena: STAPLES Center ▪ Attendance: 778,777 (8th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Derek Fisher | 82 | 2297 | -0.95 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.078 | 8.9 |
| SG | Kobe Bryant | 82 | 2779 | 5.67 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 0.179 | 23.8 |
| SF | Ron Artest | 82 | 2410 | 0.13 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 0.087 | 11.2 |
| PF | Pau Gasol | 82 | 3037 | 3.88 | 3.2 | 4.4 | 0.232 | 23.3 |
| C | Andrew Bynum | 54 | 1500 | 2.32 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 0.210 | 21.1 |
| PF | Lamar Odom | 82 | 2639 | 3.19 | 2.6 | 4.9 | 0.184 | 19.4 |
| PG | Steve Blake | 79 | 1581 | -3.30 | -0.3 | 1.2 | 0.055 | 7.5 |
| SG | Shannon Brown | 82 | 1568 | -0.60 | -0.1 | -3.1 | 0.093 | 13.6 |
| SF | Matt Barnes | 53 | 1020 | 1.64 | -0.9 | 0.5 | 0.142 | 14.6 |
| SF | Luke Walton | 54 | 484 | -7.62 | -0.1 | 0.8 | -0.016 | 5.1 |
| PF | Derrick Caracter | 41 | 215 | -5.16 | -1.5 | -1.7 | 0.057 | 10.0 |
| SF | Devin Ebanks | 20 | 118 | -2.92 | -1.4 | -1.4 | 0.144 | 19.4 |
| C | Theo Ratliff | 10 | 71 | -7.52 | -0.5 | -1.0 | 0.000 | 4.3 |
| C | Joe Smith | 16 | 69 | -10.54 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.099 | -0.1 |
New Orleans Hornets
46-36, 3rd in NBA Southwest Division (Schedule and Results)
Coach: Monty Williams (46-36)
PTS/G: 94.9 (27th of 30) ▪ Opp PTS/G: 94.0 (5th of 30)
SRS: 1.28 (13th of 30) ▪ Pace: 88.7 (29th of 30)
Off Rtg: 106.2 (19th of 30) ▪ Def Rtg: 105.2 (10th of 30)
Expected W-L: 44-38 (14th of 30)
Arena: New Orleans Arena ▪ Attendance: 603,088 (26th of 30)
| Pos | Roster | G | Min | SPM | RAPM | 4yAPM | WS/48 | PER |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PG | Chris Paul | 80 | 2865 | 9.25 | 4.3 | 7.3 | 0.233 | 23.8 |
| SG | Marco Belinelli | 80 | 1940 | -1.79 | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.084 | 12.2 |
| SF | Trevor Ariza | 75 | 2589 | 0.50 | -1.9 | 0.0 | 0.062 | 11.4 |
| PF | Carl Landry | 76 | 1996 | -2.55 | -1.0 | -0.4 | 0.098 | 14.9 |
| C | Emeka Okafor | 72 | 2273 | 0.15 | 2.5 | -0.2 | 0.137 | 16.0 |
| PG | Jarrett Jack | 83 | 1709 | -2.42 | -1.8 | -1.0 | 0.067 | 14.3 |
| SG | Willie Green | 77 | 1664 | -3.63 | -0.3 | -1.1 | 0.052 | 10.8 |
| SF | Quincy Pondexter | 66 | 729 | -5.21 | -0.9 | -0.9 | 0.061 | 8.5 |
| C | Aaron Gray | 41 | 521 | -1.49 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.102 | 11.2 |
| PF | David Andersen | 40 | 373 | -5.34 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.033 | 10.9 |
| PF | Jason Smith | 77 | 1090 | -4.07 | 0.3 | -0.5 | 0.071 | 10.9 |
| C | DJ Mbenga | 41 | 330 | -4.83 | 0.1 | -1.0 | 0.076 | 9.7 |
| PG | Marcus Banks | 3 | 22 | -4.90 | 0.2 | -3.1 | 0.012 | 6.8 |
| SF | Patrick Ewing | 7 | 18 | -16.62 | 0.2 | -0.1 | -0.167 | 0.7 |
Predictions (based on these rankings)
| Full-Season | Post-Deadline | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Games | LAL | NOR | Prob | Games | LAL | NOR | Prob | |
| 5 | 4 | 1 | 29.5% | 5 | 4 | 1 | 35.4% | |
| 6 | 4 | 2 | 18.6% | 4 | 4 | 0 | 28.8% | |
| 7 | 4 | 3 | 17.8% | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17.2% | |
| 4 | 4 | 0 | 17.3% | 7 | 4 | 3 | 11.9% | |
| 6 | 2 | 4 | 7.0% | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2.8% | |
| 7 | 3 | 4 | 5.9% | 7 | 3 | 4 | 2.6% | |
| 5 | 1 | 4 | 2.6% | 5 | 1 | 4 | 0.9% | |
| 4 | 0 | 4 | 1.2% | 4 | 0 | 4 | 0.4% | |
| LAL | 83.2% | LAL | 93.3% | |||||
| NOR | 16.8% | NOR | 6.7% | |||||
(2011 & 4-year RAPM data courtesy of Jeremias Engelmann)
April 15th, 2011 at 12:10 pm
As a Hornets fan, I'm not hopeful. Even with David West they'd have a tough time. If the Hornets can win one or two games, I'll be happy.
April 17th, 2011 at 6:20 pm
Maybe Chris Paul should be MVP after all....
April 18th, 2011 at 12:16 pm
You just now realize that CP3 has been doing this all season with a lackluster cast around him?
April 19th, 2011 at 1:42 am
But he hasn't been playing like that all year. Paul had one 30+ game for the entire reg season. He also had the lowest usage and scoring average of his career. Many people thought the post-injury CP3 might no longer be capable of dominating as a scorer like he used to. I know, I know, there's more to the game than scoring; the fact remains that Paul's dominate performance in game 1 was predicated on a scoring outburst that was atypical for this season.
April 19th, 2011 at 12:39 pm
Well a "down" CP3 is still top 4 in WS, top 4 in WS/48, top ONE in SPM, top 6 in RAPM.
He's basically the best player in the league no one is talking about, and still the game's best PG.
April 19th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
I don't disagree. But I'd still rather have DRose on my team :)